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The historic Ashes series may offer one cause for celebration, but this series will also see the Aussie side host a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Older Squad Fascination Grows

For two or three years there has been growing curiosity with the average age of this side and especially the bowling attack. It is unusual to have almost every player near a Test team being above thirty, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test squad featuring a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Younger bowlers have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued performing. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of simultaneous retirements, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a process that would indeed be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is upon them, forced upon this Australian squad in the span of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only miss the opening match, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the balance experiences a far greater shift with two key bowlers missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Test matches coming on after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories portray him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what new injuries the first Test may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how tricky stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of going down early in series and a pattern of minor injuries turning into extended absences.

Future Uncertain

The back half of the contest may see the main four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane option, but beyond that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this level is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all a chance for the opposing side. You can sense that train a-coming, rolling round the corner, and England ain’t seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.